Gap Winds Forecast
May 18, 2012, 8:57 am
Subject: Gap Winds Forecast
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Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W TO 13N95W TO 1008 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 12N100W TO 14N110W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N118W TO
05N125W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 84W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W TO 13N95W
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N100W TO 14N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N118W TO 05N125W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS E OF 84W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES NE OF
THE AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N
TO 14N. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
LIES S OF THE AXIS E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FAR
NORTHERN ECUADOR FROM 01N TO 05N.
NE TRADE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF
134W ACCORDING TO THE 0648 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 1027 MB HIGH CURRENTLY
NEAR 34N149W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS PUSHED EASTWARD
TOWARD 130W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE BY LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH TO GENERATE
20 KT N WINDS WELL OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER NE WATERS TODAY
AND TOMORROW...WITH NORTHERLY SWELL KEEPING SEAS OVER 8 FT HERE
INTO SUN MORNING.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - ENE 10-13, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - ESE 3-4, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - SW 6-9, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SSE 6-8, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SUNDAY - SSW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - SW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - W 6-9, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - W 8-12, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 16sec
THURSDAY - W 9-13, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 14sec