Solmate Santiago Weather


May 18, 2012, 8:57 am
Subject: Solmate Santiago Weather


**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NW 20, Seas NW 4-7 feet @ 10sec
TONITE - NW 15-20, Seas NW 5-7 feet @ 10sec
SATURDAY - NW 15-20, Seas NW 4-6 feet @ 10sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 10-15 strongest off shore, Seas NW 4-6 feet @ 10sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - WNW 15-20 strongest from Abreojos north, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NW 15, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - WNW 20, Seas mixed NW and SSW 4-6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 15, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 15sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - WNW 15, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NW 15, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 15, could see 20 or a little more at Cabo Falso, Seas SSW 4-5 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 15-20 strongest near Cabo Falso, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 15, Seas NW 3-5 feet @ 12ec, Middle 2/3 WNW 15-20, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 NW 15, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 15-20, Seas WNW 4-6 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 15-20, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 NW 15, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 15-20, Seas NW 4-6 feet @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 15-20, Seas mixed WNW and SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec, Southern 1/3 NW 15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 W 10, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 15, Seas WNW 3-5 feet @ 10sec, Southern 1/3 NW 15, Seas S 3-5 feet @ 11sec
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 SW 10, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 WSW 10-15, Seas W 3-6 feet @ 11sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 15, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 12sec

**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - SSE 10-15, close to shore on the Baja side WSW 10-15, Seas SE 1-2 feet
TONITE - North of AdlG/Tiburon in the middle Southerly 10, south of AdlG/Tiburon in the middle WNW 10, close to shore on the Baja W 10-15, Seas WSW 1-3 feet
SATURDAY - Not much wind, NW 5-7, close to shore on the Mainland side Westerly 10-15, Seas Flat
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 5-10, close to shore on the Baja side light Westerlies 10, Seas Flat

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - SSE 10, Seas SE 1-2 feet
TONITE - In the middle north of about 26N Northerly 10, in the middle south of about 26N WSW 10-15, close to shore on the Baja side Westerlies 10-15, La Paz a moderate Corumel, Seas WSW 1-2 feet
SATURDAY - Not much wind, NW 5-7, close to shore on the Mainland side Westerly 10-15, Seas Flat
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 10, close to shore on the Baja side light Westerlies, La Paz a light Corumel, Seas Flat

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SUNDAY - Northern Half NW 10-15, Seas NW 1-2 feet, Southern Half NW 10-15, Seas NW 1-2 feet
MONDAY - Northern Half NW 10, Seas Flat, Southern Half NW 10-15, Seas NW 1-2 feet
TUESDAY - Northern Half SE 15, Seas SE 1-2 feet, Southern Half SE 15, Seas SE 1-2 feet
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half SE 15, Seas SE 2-3 feet, Southern Half SE 15, Seas SE 2-3 feet
THURSDAY - Northern Half SE 15-20, Seas SE 1-2 feet, Southern Half SE 10-15, Seas SE 1-2 feet

**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - WSW 10-15 strongest close to shore on the Baja side where you could see a 20, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - Western 1/2 NNE 10, eastern 1/2 SSE 5-10, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - W 10, close to shore on the Baja side SW 15-20, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 7-10, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - WNW 10-15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WNW 10-15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - WSW 10-15, Seas SSW 1-3 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - SW 10-15, Seas S 2-4 feet @ 11sec
THURSDAY - WSW 10-15, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 12sec

**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WNW 10-15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - SSE 5-7, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - WNW 10-15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - N 5-7, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - WNW 10-15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NW 10-15, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - W 10-12 Seas S 1-3 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - W 10-12, Seas S 2-4 feet @ 12sec
THURSDAY - W 10-15, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 12sec

**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - WNW 15-20, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NW 10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - WNW 15, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SUNDAY - WNW 10, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - W 10, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - W 7-10, Seas S 3-5 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - SW 10, Seas S 5-7 feet @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NNW 15, Seas S 6-9 feet @ 12sec

**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - W to SW 10, Seas SSW 4-5 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NNE 5-10, Seas SSW 4-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - W 10-15, Seas SSW 4-5 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNE 5-10, Seas SSW 4 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SUNDAY - WSW 10, Seas SSW 3-4 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - SW 10, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - SW 10, Seas SSW 5-6 feet @ 10sec
WEDNESDAY - SSE 10-15, Seas SSW 7-8 feet @ 11sec
THURSDAY - SE 10-20, Seas SW 7-9 feet @ 11sec

**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 14N95W
INCLUDING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE 0548 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS BEING FORCED BY THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER
THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WINDS AS STRONG AS THOSE
SEEN IN THE OSCAT PASS SEEM UNLIKELY. THE EDGE OF THE 0324 UTC
ASCAT PASS CLIPPED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND
WAS ABOUT 5-10 KT LOWER THAN THE OSCAT PASS. THE PROXIMITY TO
LAND MAY BE ARTIFICIALLY ENHANCING THE OSCAT RETRIEVALS SINCE
OSCAT HAS A LIMITED LAND MASK. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND
WILL DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH BREEZE AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIDGING
IN THE WESTERN GULF ERODES.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - Variable 5-10, Seas SSW 4-5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - N 20-25, Seas mixed N and SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - S 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - N 25-30, Seas mixed N and SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - N 25-30, Seas mixed N and SSW 5-8 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - N 25-30, Seas mixed N and SSW 6-10 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - N 20-25, Seas mixed N and SSW 6-10 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - W 20-25, Seas S 10-15 feet @ 11sec
THURSDAY - WSW 20-25, Seas WSW 8-10 feet @ 11sec

**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W TO 13N95W TO 1008 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 12N100W TO 14N110W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N118W TO
05N125W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 84W.


THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W TO 13N95W
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N100W TO 14N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N118W TO 05N125W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS E OF 84W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES NE OF
THE AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N
TO 14N. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
LIES S OF THE AXIS E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FAR
NORTHERN ECUADOR FROM 01N TO 05N.

NE TRADE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF
134W ACCORDING TO THE 0648 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 1027 MB HIGH CURRENTLY
NEAR 34N149W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS PUSHED EASTWARD
TOWARD 130W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE BY LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH TO GENERATE
20 KT N WINDS WELL OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER NE WATERS TODAY
AND TOMORROW...WITH NORTHERLY SWELL KEEPING SEAS OVER 8 FT HERE
INTO SUN MORNING.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - ENE 10-13, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - ESE 3-4, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - SW 6-9, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SSE 6-8, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SUNDAY - SSW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - SW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - W 6-9, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - W 8-12, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 16sec
THURSDAY - W 9-13, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 14sec