Tehuantepec Forecast

May 18, 2012, 8:57 am
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast

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Hurricane season is starting off with a bang. TD Alette is dying near 13.8N 113.8W and another area of interest is near 12N 100W which might develop in the next few days (in fact one model is pretty aggressive with it and has it heading towards me on Thursday) and late in the forecast period another critter pops up south of Huatulco.

There are NO watches or warnings.

WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 14N95W
INCLUDING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE 0548 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS BEING FORCED BY THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER
THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WINDS AS STRONG AS THOSE
SEEN IN THE OSCAT PASS SEEM UNLIKELY. THE EDGE OF THE 0324 UTC
ASCAT PASS CLIPPED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND
WAS ABOUT 5-10 KT LOWER THAN THE OSCAT PASS. THE PROXIMITY TO
LAND MAY BE ARTIFICIALLY ENHANCING THE OSCAT RETRIEVALS SINCE
OSCAT HAS A LIMITED LAND MASK. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND
WILL DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH BREEZE AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIDGING
IN THE WESTERN GULF ERODES.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - Variable 5-10, Seas SSW 4-5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - N 20-25, Seas mixed N and SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - S 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - N 25-30, Seas mixed N and SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - N 25-30, Seas mixed N and SSW 5-8 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - N 25-30, Seas mixed N and SSW 6-10 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - N 20-25, Seas mixed N and SSW 6-10 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - W 20-25, Seas S 10-15 feet @ 11sec
THURSDAY - WSW 20-25, Seas WSW 8-10 feet @ 11sec